What Ethiopia Learns From Bosnia?

                    Tolera T                                                                                    | October 9, 2013

You have probably taught ‘what possibly can we learn from that civil-war thorn country’? But there is more to the resolution than the problem. So hear me out.

The ongoing Bosnia [Bosnia and Herzegovina] census has reminded me of statistics and politics in Ethiopia pretty much because the Bosnian case can be mirrored in Ethiopia. Although some might think this survey brings back some ethnic rifts within the Bosnian society, I’m as eager and optimist as if it is conducted in Ethiopia that it would settle the issue of mistrust between factions of society once and for all. And that we would learn something from it.

Bosnia is doing the census for the first time since the Bosnian war. They want to know the exact number of people who consider themselves as Muslims [Bosniaks], Croats and Serbs. This is because power, territory, sociocultural and economic affairs are handled according to Dayton peace accord based on the ratio of the three. As a matter of fact, they think the survey is also instrumental to joining the European Union in which neighbouring Croatia is a member. People who refuse to be categorized under any of the three ethnic groups or just call themselves Bosnian, mostly because of intermarriage between the three, are left as ‘others’.

For Bosnia, figuring out the percentile of the three ethnic groups making up the country is a matter of stability and peace. The early 90′s war was a direct result of lack of transparency and reliable demographic data that could have helped set up a multi-ethnic government based on majority rule and minority right.

In Ethiopia, some, my friend that I spoke with before writing this article for example, questions why the ‘others’ group that Bosnia referred to blanketly does not exist. He angrily blames not only TPLF but also OLF, ONLF and other ‘separatist’ groups for the mandatory declaration of ethnicity in Ethiopia. He considers himself as mixed between Amhara and Gurage and claims he is just Ethiopian which led us to long hours of defining and redefining ‘Ethiopian’, as usual.

It is undeniable fact there are mixed people who have parents from different ethnic groups in Ethiopia. And my friend argues such people should not be forced to declare their ethnicity; often following their paternal line. Note that to follow the maternal or paternal genealogy is more of sociocultural order than political. In Bosnia, ‘others’ can’t even get jobs and there are concerns about human rights because there is no law particularly protecting them. In Ethiopian case too, if one wants to be just Ethiopian without declaring ethnicity, although states currently don’t allow, he might work under federal law and would enjoy protection but he would suffer in federal states because laws and benefits do particularly target specific ethnic group in the form of, for example, screening based on language proficiency.

Mind you, Bosnia calls roughly 20% of the population ‘others’; and it is easy to see the weight of the matter about the ethnic association in the country. Well, in Ethiopia ‘others’ is only given to insignificant chunk of people and religions, normally less than 1% of the total population in aggregate. So it is not difficult to understand mixed people in Ethiopia are better off associating themselves to ethnic groups than being side-lined as ‘others’.

Ethiopia has conducted two censuses [1995 and 2007] since 1991 and none of them are trusted by any ethnic group in the country. Everyone believes they are victims of targeted manipulations of figures for political gains.

We all remember the case of drop from projection in the population of Amhara region in 2007 census. While the central statistics agency believed the case was due to emigration, low birth and higher deaths from HIV/AIDS, members of the parliament [MPs] at the time and the general Amhara public taught otherwise. Since then there are even some wild claims that women in Amhara region are being sterilized in to infertility.

Data indicates Oromos are single largest nation in Ethiopia. The 2007 census puts the number at 27 million while it is believed the number, excluding Kenyan Oromos, is at least 30 million. This is a substantial difference. Even more doubting is the number of non-Oromos living in Oromia. Some put it less than 7% while official figures from CSA put it anywhere between 10 and 15% of the total population. So the native Oromos in Oromia, based on the CSA figures, is 25 million, stretched to maximum.

The Sidamas think their number is underreported. Muslims also feel the same way. On the contrary, the population of Afar and Tigray Federal states is believed to be significantly exaggerated. Ofcourse, empirical evidence to support the claims are not to be found.

The junta on the thrown manipulates demographic figures for at least three reasons. First, with both Oromos and Amharas now being ruled by the Tigrayan minority, to clinch on power, it is pretty much expected that the thugs divide and rule these biggest ethnic groups, reduce their numbers whenever possible. Second, more people means more representatives at the parliament, an unfair increase in voting power. Third, they use it for psychological warfare that, to be honest, should not bother us because we clearly know the numbers are not true on the first place.

Contrary to Bosnia that has successfully implemented the Dayton Accord that granted the full power over political, sociocultural and economic issues to the respective ethnic groups in their own designated territory, sofar, although a very important step forward, the Ethnic Federalism could only establish a distinct territory of ethnic groups in Ethiopia. Even that is disputed for example in North Wollo and Gondar where it is claimed that Tigray region has annexed lands that otherwise would be within Amhara region. Same problem arises between Somali and Oromia, Afar and Tigray and other separate incidences of incursion. The issue of true self-rule, equitable power sharing is remotely possible in current context of Ethiopia where hegemony is in place. That brings us to another issue- the lack of power to allocate proper resources to develop once culture and language.

The issue of ethnic association which some call profiling has been the core foundation of political movement and wider public phycology and conciseness since Waleling’s time. Unless robust and inclusive Ethiopian identity that reflects diverse ethnic groups reconstructed, this will likely to continue, probably longer than we think. For that to work, it is important that an independent census be conducted and all demographic facts be known and true ethnic federalism installed. That way, ethnic groups, weather in aggregate [like SNPPR] or as single entity, can have a full access to power to govern their resource and develop their culture and language; and at the same time have a fair share of say at the central government.

You can reach the author at toleraat@gmail.com source ( http://ayyaantuu.com/horn-of-africa-news/what-ethiopia-learns-from-bosnia/ )