March 23, 2014 (The Guardian) — Diplomacy is the only way out of this crisis. The alternatives are sanctions, which will be ineffective – or war, which would rapidly escalate into nuclear war.
The belief that the Cold War was over may well have been a delusion.Pushing Nato to the borders of Russia was motivated by Cold War attitudes, and bound to be opposed by Russia. President Gorbachev believed he had a firm agreement that Nato would not move one yard east. He was probably wrong in that belief, but it was still his belief and he had argued for it fiercely.
In reading the western press of recent events in Ukraine and Crimea, with few exceptions, commentators say that Putin is wrong and the west is right, that all problems have been caused by Putin and the west is being reasonable and constructive. Distrust between Russia and the west is greater than at any time since the fall of the Soviet Union.
On the American side, Henry Kissinger has spoken of a way to end the crisis.
Ukraine, as an independent country, is 23 years old. Half the country is pro-European and speaks Ukraine; a very significant minority is pro-Russian and speaks Russian. The European Union and Nato give every appearance of trying to seduce Ukraine to join Europe and to become part of Nato.
The current government was installed, as much as anything, because of riots in the streets against the previously elected government. The west has spoken much of legality. The legality of the current government of Ukraine is not without question. Legality will not resolve the present crisis. Pragmatic, diplomatic, common sense and recognition of history and of what is now in place are essential if the current situation is not to lead, inevitably, to war between Russia and the west.
The way forward should be clear. The two factions inside Ukraine must be told that they have to learn the art of compromise and live together, if they want a single unified country. That places a heavy responsibility on the European Union, and on America, to forget much of their rhetoric of past times, to forget their seduction and promises and to tell the pro-Europeans in Ukraine: you must negotiate, you must learn to live together. There is no safe haven in the European Union. They should also be told that a unified Ukraine should not become part of Nato, at any point in the future.
Russia, for its part, would need to take equivalent actions in relation to the pro-Russian element in Ukraine. Learn to live together, learn the art of diplomatic compromise, establish the basis for a new constitution and new elections. Put aside the view that Europe can give one faction total victory, or that Russia can give the other faction total victory. If war is to be avoided, if there is to be a way out of this crisis, actions of this kind should be pursued.
It is very similar to the proposals put forward by Kissinger about a week ago in the Washington Post. Since then, Russia has also put forward a plan for international supervision of a transition process in Ukraine. That would seem to be a further development of Kissinger’s proposals.
I am not aware of any response from the west. Clearly, if proposals were accepted, there would be a possibility of peace in Ukraine and the crisis could disappear. The alternative seems to be sanctions and more sanctions. Each time the European Union speaks, or America speaks on this question, it reminds me more and more of the League of Nations in the 1930s. Impotent, ineffective, useless. That carries its own sharp danger. When ineffective actions do not result in the response which is sought, it is easy then to revert to a military response, which is no answer to this problem.
If there were a military response, Ukraine itself would probably be the greatest loser, but others would also pay a higher price. It would be difficult to stop such a war becoming a nuclear war. Between them, the United States and Russia have 2,000 nuclear weapons on a state of high alert.
There is no point in continuing the argument about who started this and how it went wrong. Nato, in my view quite inadvisably, moved to the borders of Russia and what has happened in the Crimea will not be undone by Russia. These events create today’s reality. It can still be dealt with through diplomacy, through a quiet analysis of what is necessary, to build a unified country out of the rest of Ukraine.
That is the most that can he hoped for, by peaceful means. There is no sign that leaders in the west, at this point, will be prepared to settle for what is possible.
Source: The Guardian
No comments:
Post a Comment